At the Cop28 climate summit held in the United Arab Emirates, a recently unveiled draft climate agreement explicitly calls on nations to shift away from fossil fuels in order to mitigate the severe impacts of the climate crisis. However, the newly proposed text, disclosed by Cop president Sultan Al Jaber early on Wednesday, lacks a clear commitment to either phase out or phase down the use of fossil fuels, contrary to the pleas from numerous countries, civil society groups, and scientists.
Instead, the draft AT Cop28 urges countries to contribute to the global initiative of transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems “in a just, orderly, and equitable manner,” with the goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 in accordance with scientific findings. This compromise proposal resulted from challenging 36 hours of negotiations, during which the initial draft faced widespread rejection by both wealthy and impoverished nations. They labeled it as “grossly insufficient,” “incoherent,” and akin to a “death certificate” for vulnerable nations.
“The need for deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5C pathways.”
The revised proposal recognizes “the need for deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in line with 1.5C pathways.” It calls for a tripling of global renewable energy capacity by 2030 and reiterates the commitment to accelerate efforts “towards the phase-down of unabated coal power.” Additionally, the draft advocates for the development of “zero- and low-emission technologies,” encompassing renewables, nuclear power, abatement and removal technologies such as carbon capture and utilization, and storage, especially in challenging sectors, alongside low-carbon hydrogen production.
The intention behind this draft is to reflect the consensus among nearly 200 countries at the conference in Dubai, where numerous governments have been insisting on robust language signaling the eventual end of the fossil fuel era. This stands in contrast to protests from countries like Saudi Arabia and members of the oil-producing group OPEC.
Representatives from each country are expected to attend a final meeting later on Wednesday, where they could potentially approve the deal, bringing an end to two weeks of arduous negotiations that have extended beyond the initially scheduled time.
Espen Barth Eide
Espen Barth Eide, Norway’s minister for climate and the environment, lauded the revised draft as the first time the world has united around “such a clear text on the need to transition away from fossil fuels.” However, some critics, like Stephen Cornelius from WWF, argue that while the language on fossil fuels has improved, it falls short of explicitly calling for the full phase-out of coal, oil, and gas.
Rachel Cleetus, policy director at the Union of Concerned Scientists, commended the text for sending a strong signal that world leaders recognize the need for a decisive shift away from fossil fuels towards clean energy in this decade. Yet, she highlighted concerns about the inadequacy of finance and equity provisions for low- and middle-income countries to transition to clean energy.
Melanie Robinson
Melanie Robinson, global climate program director at the World Resources Institute, praised the draft for making a clear call to transition away from fossil fuels and accelerate action in this decade. However, Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, identified major issues with the text, describing it as a “major victory for oil and gas producing countries” and criticizing its lack of commitment to peak global emissions by 2025.
It’s noteworthy that deals made at UN climate summits must achieve consensus, with individual countries subsequently responsible for implementing the agreements through national policies and investments. If the language advocating for a transition away from fossil fuels is adopted, it would mark the first time in three decades of COP climate summits that nations collectively agree to move away from oil, gas, and coal, which currently constitute about 80% of global energy sources.
Sultan Al Jaber
Sultan Al Jaber, as the president of the talks on behalf of the United Arab Emirates, engaged in intensive shuttle diplomacy throughout Tuesday and held meetings with heads of delegation until the early hours of Wednesday. Climate justice advocates argue that rich countries have failed to demonstrate the necessary leadership to address the climate crisis, and their own hypocrisy regarding fossil fuels is hindering progress at Cop28.
A small minority of countries, led by Saudi Arabia, publicly objected to any reference to reducing the production and consumption of fossil fuels in the potential deal text. Developed countries have advocated for a phase-out of coal, oil, and gas, but with caveats, such as “unabated” or focusing solely on coal, as seen in the case of the United States. Conversely, many developing nations, despite supporting the goal of limiting global temperatures to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, insist that any commitment to phasing out fossil fuels must be “fair, funded, and fast,” with wealthier polluting countries leading the transition.