Analysts are sounding alarms as regional nations find themselves trapped in a legitimacy crisis while the window to reinstate democratic governance in Niger. Rapidly closes following a military coup that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum last month.
High-ranking military officials from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) are gathering in Ghana on Thursday to address the deepening crisis in Niger. The meeting comes in the wake of a deadline that has come and gone, demanding that mutinous soldiers release and restore President Bazoum to power. The former leader was forcibly removed in July and presently remains under house arrest, along with his family, in Niamey, the capital of Niger.
This assembly marks a pivotal moment since ECOWAS’s recent mandate to deploy a “standby force” with the goal of reinstating constitutional rule in Niger. Yet, the specifics of potential military intervention, including its timing and feasibility, remain shrouded in uncertainty. Experts specializing in conflict analysis suggest that assembling this force, comprising thousands of troops from nations such as Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Benin, could potentially span weeks or even months of preparation.
ECOWAS’s historical endeavours to curtail the rampant coups plaguing the region have seen limited success. Neighbouring countries like Burkina Faso and Mali have each experienced multiple coups within a span of three years. The international community, along with ECOWAS, has deemed Niger’s recent coup as one too many. In response, the regional bloc has not only posed the threat of military intervention but has also imposed significant economic and travel sanctions.
However, as the clock ticks without evident military intervention and negotiations stagnate, the junta currently in power consolidates its control, leaving ECOWAS with a dwindling set of choices.
“ECOWAS has few good options … particularly as the (junta) seems unwilling for the moment to cede to outside pressure,” commented Andrew Lebovich, a research fellow at the Clingendael Institute, a distinguished think tank. He emphasized the complexities of the situation, asserting that intervention could have unintended consequences, potentially damaging the organization’s standing. Simultaneously, a failure to secure substantial concessions from the junta might undermine ECOWAS’s political credibility during this delicate period.
While regional efforts are underway, the African Union’s highest security body also convened on Monday to deliberate whether it would lend support to a potential military intervention. However, as of now, the Council has yet to disclose its decision, and the possibility exists that broader continental stability could influence its stance on military action.
As the political turmoil unfolds in Niger, the dilemma faced by regional players underscores the intricacies of balancing democratic values with the imperative of maintaining stability in the face of recurrent political upheavals.
