LONDON (UK) – Scotland’s economy will bear the brunt to trade two or three times, which would be more severe than the impact of Brexit if it separates from the United Kingdom, according to an academic study published on Wednesday.
Scotland’s devolved government dismissed the report by the London School of Economics (LSE), saying it had considered factors that would encourage an independent Scotland to “do things better.”
The report said Scotland sends 61% of its exports to the rest of the United Kingdom, which it said would continue to be its biggest trade partner for decades post any independence vote, restricting the benefits for Scotland if it rejoins the European Union.
“At least from a trade perspective, independence would leave Scotland considerably poorer than staying in the United Kingdom,” said Hanwei Huang, assistant professor at the City University of Hong Kong, one of the authors of the report.
Responding to the LSE report, the Scottish government said it would help an independent Scotland by rejoining the EU’s single market and pinpointed the success of small EU member states Ireland and Denmark.
Opinion polls have shown a majority of Scots are now in support of independence, but British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said he will not approve a new referendum.
The LSE report said Scottish income per capita stands to fall by 2% because of Brexit.
If Scotland became independent, rejoined the EU and had low border costs for trade with the United Kingdom, that figure would become a 6.3% fall – or a 7.6% drop if border costs with the UK such as customs checks were high, it said.
The report estimated trade flows between Scotland and the rest of the UK were six times higher than what would be, if they were separate countries.