MUMBAI (INDIA) – India surpassed 10 million infections of the new coronavirus on Saturday. What came as a good news is that it has touched this number much later than predicted only a month ago indicating that the pace of infections has been slow.
India reported 25,152 new infections and 347 deaths in the past 24 hours, data from the health ministry showed.
However, some health experts say the fall in cases show that many Indians may have already developed virus antibodies through natural infection.
“Herd immunity is a huge part of it … which is helping us to break the transmission,” said Pradeep Awate, a senior health official in India’s worst-hit state of Maharashtra, home to Mumbai.
“If infections were surging, we would have seen the number of patients in hospitals go up, especially after the festival season. That has not happened,” said Raman Gangakhedkar, who until recently headed epidemiology at the Indian Council Of Medical Research.
A government-appointed panel tasked with making projections based on a mathematical model has gauged that 60% of India’s 1.35 billion people have already been infected with the virus.
Manindra Agrawal, a committee member and professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in the northern city of Kanpu, said, “If the model is correct, it is unlikely that a second wave will happen, because once 60% have immunity, nothing can cause another wave.”
“However, the predictions of the model need to be independently confirmed by a sero survey for us to be certain.”
