Dip in leisure driving slows pace of fuel demand recovery

NEW YORK (US) – Brandon Thompson was all set to drive for eight hours from his home in Iowa to Ann Harbor in Michigan to watch his favourite college football team play. But the pandemic lockdown upset all plans.

“We realised very early on if there was a season, there would be no fans,” said Thompson, who is a big supporter of University of Michigan Wolverines.

Millions of people like Thompson across the world have cancelled or restricted their leisure trips because of the pandemic. This has made fuel demand record a slower-than-expected recovery.

The student would have driven more than 500 miles (805 km) to see the match and go tailgating, where fans congregate early to sit in the parking lot and share snacks and drinks. There would have been similar trips across the country.

Traffic outside of the 7 am to 10 am and 4 pm to 7 pm rush hours accounts for 55% of fuel demand in the US, according to an estimate of Rystad Energy. That covers sporting trips, ferrying children to activities or going to the movie theatre. Non-leisure drives are down 12% compared with the pre-pandemic levels in early October.

Across Europe, travel has once again been hit with many nations reimposing lockdowns as infections surge.

“The downwards trend in European mobility indicators is likely to continue, with pressure on road transportation fuels demand probable in the weeks ahead,” JBC Energy said in a statement.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has warned that recovery in fuel demand has been anaemic and could affect oil markets for months at a stretch.

At 9 million barrels a day, the US is the world’s biggest fuel guzzler, which is more than double China, the second-largest consumer, said US Energy Department figures.

Non-rush hour traffic had been bouncing back in the US when it stalled in September, according to Artyom Tchen, senior oil market analyst at Rystad. Non-rush traffic levels across the world are down by 1 million barrels per day to touch 25.2 million barrels.

“The kids today, their parents are crazy: They’ll drive like 300 miles for a hockey game,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. Without those trips, gasoline demand is likely to remain near its current 8.5 million barrels per day, Kilduff said.

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