SINGAPORE (Finance) – Asian share markets were pinned down on Thursday, haunted by the rising U.S. coronavirus death toll, and with investors braced for more signs of economic pain in the world’s largest economy ahead of another likely record week of jobless claims.
With hopes growing that the worst of the outbreak may have passed for China and South Korea, the mood was less bleak than on Wall Street, which plunged overnight.
Yet MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.3% while Japan’s Nikkei was down 1%. European futures rose 0.2% and U.S. futures bounced 1.2% after Wednesday’s rout.
Bonds rallied and the U.S. dollar hung on to recent gains.
“Everyone’s trying to figure out how much of the month-end moves last week were just a bear market rally, or real – it’s that dance,” said Kay Van-Petersen global macro strategist at Saxo Capital Markets in Singapore.
“My viewpoint is that we’re still in a bear market and the U.S. is not even close to pricing in the massive economic dislocation, let alone the deaths they’re going to find.”
Markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai fluctuated either side of flat.
Australia’s bank-heavy benchmark stayed in the red, last down 1.5%, after New Zealand’s central bank ordered a suspension of bank dividends – hitting Australia’s banks, which own most of New Zealand’s big lenders.
Bonds jumped and the yield on safe-haven 10-year U.S. Treasuries – which falls when prices rise – fell as far as 0.5680%, its lowest since March 10, and hardly budged higher.
U.S. labour market data will likely provide the next test of market sentiment and of the pain in the real economy.
Initial claims for jobless benefits last week probably surpassed the week-ago record of 3.3 million, with 3.5 million expected, according to a Reuters survey of economists.
“We think last week’s print of just under 3.5 million is ripe for a dramatic upward revision,” said RBC Capital Markets’ chief U.S. economist, Tom Porcelli.
“This week we look for another sizeable 4 million increase.”
DIFFICULT DAYS
China and South Korea have shown signs of controlling the virus, reporting falling numbers of new cases, but progress remains fragile and infections are soaring globally.
The World Health Organization said the global case count will reach 1 million and the death toll 50,000 in the next few days. It currently stands at 46,906.
U.S President Donald Trump, who had initially played down the outbreak, told reporters at the White House on Wednesday that he is considering a plan to halt flights to coronavirus hot zones in the United States.
White House medical advisers now forecast that even if Americans follow unprecedented stay-at-home orders, some 100,000 to 240,000 people could die from the respiratory disease.
“Difficult days are ahead for our nation,” Trump said.
“We’re going to have a couple of weeks, starting pretty much now, but especially a few days from now, that are going to be horrific.”
In currency markets, safety and liquidity remained in hot demand, with the dollar gaining against the euro and yen and mostly holding ground won overnight against other majors.
It last stood at $1.0939 per euro and 107.47 Japanese yen and rose against emerging market currencies.
The South African rand hit a fresh low on Thursday while the Turkish lira TRYTOM=D4 touched a two-year low. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $1,583.56 an ounce.
Oil futures bounced after overnight drops, before paring gains slightly since the demand outlook remains weak and storage tanks are quickly filling with an oversupply of crude. [O/R]
Brent futures last traded $1.46 firmer at $26.20 per barrel and U.S. crude was 4% higher at $21.22 a barrel.
(Photos syndicated via Reuters)